Iran Predictions & Odds· 1586 markets

W
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

14%

Yes

$68.4m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$579k today
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

97%

September 25

$2.2m Vol.
$506k Liq.
🔥$312k today
Ends in about 1 month
I
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

96%

September 30

$31.3m Vol.
$370k Liq.
🔥$164k today
293
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

14%

December 31

$18.0m Vol.
$442k Liq.
🔥$141k today
157
Ended
W
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

69%

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

$976k Vol.
$214k Liq.
🔥$107k today
Ends in 9 months
I
Iran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by...?

26%

June 30, 2027

$26.0m Vol.
$636k Liq.
🔥$73k today
1,089
Ends in 9 months
I
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

35%

October 31

$2.6m Vol.
$51k Liq.
154
Ends in about 1 month
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$982k Vol.
$288k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

9%

Yes

$1.3m Vol.
$47k Liq.
8
Ends in 8 days
I
Iran leader end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026?

85%

Mojtaba Khamenei

$39.5m Vol.
$2.3m Liq.
155
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

23%

December 31

$3.1m Vol.
$98k Liq.
20
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran · close

Iran full airspace closure by...?

24%

December 31

$9.7m Vol.
$73k Liq.
1,015
Ends in 4 months
W
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

53%

USA

$11k Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

1%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$15k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

30%

October 31

$369k Vol.
$32k Liq.
6
Ends in 8 days
W
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

10%

Yes

$578k Vol.
$45k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

20%

Yes

$250k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

87%

December 31, 2026

$5k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

13%

Yes

$1.8m Vol.
$75k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

35%

October 31

$51k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month