US Iran Predictions & Odds· 404 markets

U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

98%

September 20

$415k Vol.
$284k Liq.
🔥$327k today
Ends in about 1 month
W
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

85%

No Meeting by September 30

$6.1m Vol.
$892k Liq.
🔥$197k today
Ends in 11 days
N
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

63%

March 31, 2027

$11.6m Vol.
$240k Liq.
🔥$79k today
Ends in 6 months
U
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

11%

December 31

$17.7m Vol.
$476k Liq.
🔥$51k today
156
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

34%

Steve Witkoff

$750k Vol.
$354k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

14%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$901k Vol.
$246k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

50%

September 3

$66 Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

3%

Yes

$1.3m Vol.
$38k Liq.
8
Ends in 11 days
U
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

19%

October 31

$356k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 11 days
W
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

5%

Yes

$159k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

3%

Yes

$7.8m Vol.
$71k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

4%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

4%

Yes

$636k Vol.
$25k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
U
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%

December 31

$29.5m Vol.
$169k Liq.
195
Ends in 3 months
U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

60%

December 31

$29.5m Vol.
$531k Liq.
🔥$232k today
573
Ends in 3 months
U
US charges Hormuz fees by...?

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

6%

Yes

$984k Vol.
$36k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

26%

December 31

$3.1m Vol.
$114k Liq.
20
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%

Yes

$792k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27)

98%

Trump

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

92%

Terror / Terrorist / Terrorism 5+ times

$4k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 5 days