Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 189 markets

I
Iceland EU referendum passes?

Iceland EU referendum passes?

0%

Yes

$268k Vol.
$33k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

67%

December 31

$767k Vol.
$102k Liq.
34
Ends in 3 months
N
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

63%

March 31, 2027

$11.6m Vol.
$248k Liq.
🔥$81k today
Ends in 6 months
W
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

85%

No Meeting by September 30

$6.1m Vol.
$923k Liq.
🔥$188k today
Ends in 11 days
R
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

85%

December 31

$237k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will Trump speak to in September?

Who will Trump speak to in September?

97%

Xi Jinping

$151k Vol.
$138k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
S
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

29%

October 31

$9k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

18%

Yes

$119k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

5%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

70%

December 31, 2027

$7.7m Vol.
$916k Liq.
216
Ends in 9 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

19%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
F
Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?

53%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$575 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

8%

Yes

$21k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

14%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$280k Liq.
35
Ends in 3 months
C
Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

9%

Yes

$64 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in over 2 years
C
Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...?

14%

December 31, 2027

$2k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

26%

Yes

$12k Vol.
$977 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

91%

Yes

$257k Vol.
$55k Liq.
Ends in 3 months