Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 127 markets

I
Iceland EU referendum passes?

Iceland EU referendum passes?

0%

Yes

$268k Vol.
$34k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

69%

December 31

$766k Vol.
$106k Liq.
34
Ends in 3 months
N
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

63%

March 31, 2027

$11.6m Vol.
$239k Liq.
🔥$84k today
Ends in 6 months
W
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

88%

No Meeting by September 30

$6.0m Vol.
$774k Liq.
🔥$92k today
Ends in 12 days
W
Who will Trump speak to in September?

Who will Trump speak to in September?

97%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$150k Vol.
$150k Liq.
Ends in 12 days
W
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

18%

Yes

$119k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

5%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

23%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
S
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

32%

October 31

$8k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

14%

December 31

$1.9m Vol.
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35
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

70%

December 31, 2027

$7.7m Vol.
$897k Liq.
214
Ends in 9 months
U
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

91%

Yes

$256k Vol.
$57k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

5%

September 30

$13k Vol.
$32k Liq.
1
Ends in 12 days
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

7%

Yes

$823k Vol.
$55k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

18%

Mexico

$392k Vol.
$113k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?

26%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$252 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

47%

December 31

$190k Vol.
$41k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

8%

Yes

$2.1m Vol.
$14k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months