Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 189 markets

R
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

70%

December 31

$813k Vol.
$132k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
W
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

44%

USA

$19k Vol.
$103k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

82%

October 31

$109 Vol.
$553 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

79%

December 31, 2026

$25k Vol.
$45k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

89%

December 31

$266k Vol.
$52k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will Trump speak to in September?

Who will Trump speak to in September?

96%

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$174k Vol.
$117k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
S
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

30%

October 31

$46k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

19%

Yes

$119k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

5%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

73%

December 31, 2027

$8.0m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$87k today
216
Ends in 9 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

18%

OpenAI

$10k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
C
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?

96%

October 31

$95k Vol.
$56k Liq.
🔥$53k today
8
Ends in about 1 month
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

17%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$262k Liq.
35
Ended
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

10%

Yes

$37k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?

33%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$834 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

20%

Yes

$330 Vol.
$857 Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

40%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$906 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...?

37%

December 31, 2027

$4k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
U
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

43%

December 31

$202k Vol.
$56k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months