Foreign Policy Predictions & Odds· 109 markets

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What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

17%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

$905k Vol.
$258k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?

49%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$439 Liq.
1
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W
What will Tucker Carlson say at AmericaFest on December 18?

Trump 10+ times

$15k Vol.
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9
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Ecuador Presidential Election

Daniel Noboa (ADN)

$4.9m Vol.
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1,324
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Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

April 30

$137k Vol.
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33
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I
Israel ground offensive in Rafah when?

Gaza · Israel

Israel ground offensive in Rafah when?

Not by April 19

$28k Vol.
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Ended
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Taiwan Presidential Election: Who will win?

Lai Ching-te (賴清德)

$3.8m Vol.
$0 Liq.
168
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What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?

Nuclear

$1.7m Vol.
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391
C
Croatia Presidential Election

Zoran Milanović

$5.1m Vol.
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139
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# of Conservative seats after UK Election? (125-200)

<125

$283k Vol.
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5
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[Single Markets] Republican VP nominee?

Nikki Haley

$11k Vol.
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5
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'The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare' over $8m opening weekend?

Yes

$62k Vol.
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Ended
W
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by...?

September 10

$152k Vol.
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20
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Pakistan Election: Who will be next Prime Minister?

Other

$196k Vol.
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31
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I
Israel Military response against Iran when?

Later

$612k Vol.
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25
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I
Israel Military response against Iran when?

Later

$1.6m Vol.
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30
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U.S. military action against Iran by April 15?

Middle East · Gaza

U.S. military action against Iran by April 15?

No

$277k Vol.
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Ended
N
Next French Prime Minister

Next French Prime Minister

Other

$675k Vol.
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111
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Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by...?

April 22

$170k Vol.
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10
A
Argentina Presidential Election: Who will win?

Javier Milei

$787k Vol.
$0 Liq.
137
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