Shipping Predictions & Odds· 182 markets

H
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

28%

October 15

$112k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ended
S
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

98%

September 23

$34k Vol.
$22k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 days
J
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

5%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$310 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
H
Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

37%

December 31, 2027

$575k Vol.
$10k Liq.
38
Ends in over 1 year
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$999k Vol.
$279k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
S
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

98%

October 31

$712k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?

What price will Lighter hit in 2026?

68%

↑ $6

$849k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

28%

US

$50k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

38%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$863 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

73%

No return before November 1, 2026

$52k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
P
Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

33%

20% to 39.99%

$8k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
A
AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?

6%

Yes

$633 Vol.
$660 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US charges Hormuz fees by...?

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

6%

Yes

$984k Vol.
$29k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

33%

October 31

$2.6m Vol.
$48k Liq.
154
Ends in about 1 month
U
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

7%

Yes

$1.3m Vol.
$63k Liq.
8
Ends in 8 days
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

14%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$269k Liq.
35
Ended
I
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

25%

December 31

$3.1m Vol.
$93k Liq.
20
Ends in 3 months
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

18%

Yes

$436k Vol.
$1k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
M
Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

All · trade

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

June 30

$11k Vol.
$0 Liq.
27
Ended