Shipping Predictions & Odds· 182 markets

H
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

57%

October 31

$112k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ended
S
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

98%

September 23

$34k Vol.
$40k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 days
J
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

8%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$296 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
H
Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

37%

December 31, 2027

$575k Vol.
$10k Liq.
38
Ends in over 1 year
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$1.0m Vol.
$282k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
S
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

98%

October 31

$716k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

28%

US

$50k Vol.
$54k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?

What price will Lighter hit in 2026?

67%

↑ $6

$850k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

40%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$906 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

72%

No return before November 1, 2026

$52k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
P
Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

33%

20% to 39.99%

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
A
AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?

7%

Yes

$633 Vol.
$681 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US charges Hormuz fees by...?

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

5%

Yes

$984k Vol.
$36k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

35%

October 31

$2.6m Vol.
$41k Liq.
154
Ends in about 1 month
U
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

6%

Yes

$1.3m Vol.
$45k Liq.
8
Ends in 7 days
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

17%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$256k Liq.
35
Ended
I
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

28%

December 31

$3.1m Vol.
$87k Liq.
20
Ends in 3 months
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

18%

Yes

$436k Vol.
$1k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
M
Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

All · trade

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

June 30

$11k Vol.
$0 Liq.
27
Ended