Climate Predictions & Odds· 148 markets

W
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

10%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

22%

Yes

$43 Vol.
$158 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
F
First snow of the 2026 season

First snow of the 2026 season

99%

Denver, CO by November 30

$12k Vol.
$4k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
W
Where will it rain on September 20?

88%

New York, NY

$0 Vol.
$208 Liq.
Ends in 2 days
W
Where will it rain on September 19?

Where will it rain on September 19?

91%

Chicago, IL

$4k Vol.
$429 Liq.
Ends in about 23 hours
W
Where will it rain on September 18?

100%

Denver, CO

$3k Vol.
$995 Liq.
Ended
S
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

48%

1.35–1.39ºC

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 20 days
W
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?

75%

Yes

$703 Vol.
$381 Liq.
Ends in 6 months
W
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

74%

1

$3.5m Vol.
$204k Liq.
27
Ends in 3 months
W
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

94%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
W
Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?

100%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

73%

Over 2.5

$46k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
W
What will Bernie Sanders say during his Minneapolis Rally?

Hell 2+ times

$25k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy Tour?

Healthcare 4+ times

$46k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended
W
What will Bernie Sanders and Zohran Mamdani say at NYC Rally on April 12?

Billionaire 5+ times

$102k Vol.
$0 Liq.
12
Ended
S
Switzerland’s March Referendum: What will pass?

Cash initiative/Counter-Proposal

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
What will Trump say this week (November 10 - 16)?

MAGA / Make America Great Again

$93k Vol.
$0 Liq.
17
Ended
W
What will Obama say during DNC speech?

Hope

$789k Vol.
$0 Liq.
105
Ended
W
What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

CIA

$286k Vol.
$0 Liq.
47
Ended