Climate Predictions & Odds· 148 markets

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Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

10%

Yes

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Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

23%

Yes

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F
First snow of the 2026 season

First snow of the 2026 season

99%

Denver, CO by November 30

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Where will it rain on September 20?

Where will it rain on September 20?

100%

New York, NY

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Where will it rain on September 21?

100%

New York, NY

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September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

45%

1.35–1.39ºC

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Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?

77%

Yes

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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

73%

1

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27
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Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

94%

Yes

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Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?

100%

Yes

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What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

77%

Over 2.5

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What will Bernie Sanders say during his Minneapolis Rally?

Hell 2+ times

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What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy Tour?

Healthcare 4+ times

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What will Bernie Sanders and Zohran Mamdani say at NYC Rally on April 12?

Billionaire 5+ times

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Switzerland’s March Referendum: What will pass?

Cash initiative/Counter-Proposal

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What will Trump say this week (November 10 - 16)?

MAGA / Make America Great Again

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What will Obama say during DNC speech?

Hope

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What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

CIA

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What will the next Pope believe in?

Promoting a “Synodal Church”

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