Humanitarian Pause Predictions & Odds· 105 markets

W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

45%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$22k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

3%

September 30

$13k Vol.
$32k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 days
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

37%

Hike–Pause–Hike

$96k Vol.
$101k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

8%

Yes

$119k Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ended
S
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

26%

October 31

$30k Vol.
$55k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

14%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$238k Liq.
35
Ends in 3 months
U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

64%

December 31

$30.2m Vol.
$466k Liq.
🔥$270k today
595
Ends in 3 months
U
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?

4%

September 30

$44k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

4%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

37%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$897 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

71%

December 31, 2027

$7.8m Vol.
$863k Liq.
🔥$64k today
216
Ends in 9 months
H
Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

27%

October 31

$67k Vol.
$39k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 days
S
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?

77%

October 31

$876k Vol.
$91k Liq.
🔥$172k today
49
Ends in 9 days
T
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?

42%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$480 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
C
Counter-Strike: Village vs TenToesDown (BO3) - FRAG Midwest St. Louis Group D

27%

Village

$12 Vol.
$83 Liq.
Ended
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
I
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

18%

December 31

$4.1m Vol.
$11k Liq.
979
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

96%

45%+

$25k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months