AI Safety Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

12%

Yes

$131k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

16%

December 31

$1k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$123 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

78%

October 31

$8k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

39%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

25%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$1k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

34%

Yes

$284 Vol.
$237 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

51%

2

$10k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 12 days
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

23%

Google

$57k Vol.
$52k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

12%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$161 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

77%

55%+

$105k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$99k Vol.
$5k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

56%

Hodge Conjecture

$23k Vol.
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O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$261k Vol.
$25k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

8%

Yes

$21k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

11%

Yes

$3.0m Vol.
$21k Liq.
96
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

42%

0

$112k Vol.
$73k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$504 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$122 Vol.
$737 Liq.
Ends in 3 months