Economic Policy Predictions & Odds· 105 markets

I
Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

54%

<2.75%

$496 Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

12%

Yes

$435k Vol.
$2k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
U
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

77%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$89k Vol.
$9k Liq.
7
Ends in 4 months
W
Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

88%

Ra'am

$3k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
B
Bank of Israel Decision in October?

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

86%

No Change

$24k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
P
PPI YoY - September 2026

PPI YoY - September 2026

34%

5.9%+

$12k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 26 days
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

16%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$905k Vol.
$288k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$331 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
R
Reserve Bank of India decision in October

Reserve Bank of India decision in October

70%

25 bps increase

$15k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 17 days
B
Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

82%

No change

$127k Vol.
$60k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

62%

None before 2027

$69k Vol.
$246k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
J
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

4%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$117 Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
C
Core PCE MoM - August 2026

Core PCE MoM - August 2026

72%

0.3%

$15k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
U
UK Recession in 2026?

UK Recession in 2026?

4%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
U
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

8%

Yes

$2.0m Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Core PCE YoY - August 2026

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

33%

3.4%

$25k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
E
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

63%

0-1.0%

$50k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
B
Bank of Brazil decision in November?

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

63%

25 bps decrease

$20k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
W
What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

66%

↓ 0.0030

$192k Vol.
$42k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?

37%

5

$10k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months