AI Releases Predictions & Odds· 106 markets

N
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

86%

October 31

$19k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

13%

Yes

$264k Vol.
$21k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

11%

Yes

$31k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

6%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

34%

December 31, 2026

$405k Vol.
$10k Liq.
41
Ends in 3 months
G
GPT-7 released by...?

GPT-7 released by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$14k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$132k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

79%

October 31

$10k Vol.
$2k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?

4%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$549 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by...?

Ren Zhengfei public appearance by...?

79%

December 31

$11k Vol.
$22k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

12%

Yes

$3.0m Vol.
$17k Liq.
96
Ends in 3 months
W
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

23%

Clip-on device for clothing

$435k Vol.
$25k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
A
AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?

10%

Yes

$445 Vol.
$776 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

29%

Google

$58k Vol.
$52k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
N
New MAI thinking model released by...?

New MAI thinking model released by...?

57%

December 31

$489 Vol.
$371 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

14%

Yes

$79k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

42%

0

$115k Vol.
$72k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$100k Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

47%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
H
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?

5%

Yes

$6k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months