AI Safety Predictions & Odds· 132 markets

U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

12%

Yes

$173k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

14%

December 31

$9k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

19%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$233 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

41%

October 31

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

85%

OpenAI

$13k Vol.
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1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

38%

Yes

$742 Vol.
$288 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

52%

2

$20k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

29%

Google

$84k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

17%

Yes

$5k Vol.
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Ends in 3 months
H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

86%

55%+

$117k Vol.
$6k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

73%

December 31

$119k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

7%

Yes

$46k Vol.
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Ends in 3 months
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

36%

Hodge Conjecture

$32k Vol.
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O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

17%

Yes

$275k Vol.
$18k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

63%

0

$167k Vol.
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Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

21%

June 30, 2027

$3.0m Vol.
$44k Liq.
97
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$553 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?

16%

Yes

$3k Vol.
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Ends in 3 months
#
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

50%

Other

$12k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 2 months