Safe Superintelligence Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

12%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$161 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$99k Vol.
$6k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

39%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

76%

October 31

$8k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

42%

0

$112k Vol.
$77k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

42%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

52%

Hodge Conjecture

$23k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$280k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

60%

Hodge Conjecture

$165k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$1k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

96%

45%+

$23k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$125 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

92%

40%+

$65k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

16%

December 31, 2026

$534 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$505 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$122 Vol.
$751 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

19%

60%+

$62k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

56%

OpenAI

$461 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

23%

Google

$57k Vol.
$54k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

77%

55%+

$105k Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months