AI Safety Predictions & Odds· 132 markets

U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$132k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

16%

December 31

$1k Vol.
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Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$99 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

81%

October 31

$8k Vol.
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1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

40%

October 31

$4k Vol.
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1
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W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

43%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
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1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

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C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

34%

Yes

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#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

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W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$58k Vol.
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2
Ends in about 1 month
S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

12%

Yes

$4k Vol.
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H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

77%

55%+

$105k Vol.
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2
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S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

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2
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U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

8%

Yes

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W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

48%

Hodge Conjecture

$23k Vol.
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O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$263k Vol.
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30
Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

9%

Yes

$3.0m Vol.
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96
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

42%

0

$112k Vol.
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F
Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?

54%

Yes

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C
ChatGPT Outage by....?

ChatGPT Outage by....?

88%

Yes

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Ends in 11 days