AI Development Predictions & Odds· 118 markets

O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

59%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$59k Vol.
$52k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

4%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
E
Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

2%

Yes

$11k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

14%

December 31

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

26%

December 31, 2026

$1k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

OpenAI

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Supreme Court accepts AI copyright case before 2027?

12%

Yes

$300 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
M
M15 Monastir: Haiyi Qin vs Meaizur Rahman Khan

Tennis · Sports

M15 Monastir: Haiyi Qin vs Meaizur Rahman Khan

100%

Haiyi Qin

$0 Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
W
What will Melania say during AI talk on January 16?

President Trump

$31.1m Vol.
$0 Liq.
970
Ended
W
What will Trump say during healthcare affordability announcement?

R&D / Research and Development

$12k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
W
What will Trump say during Gulf Leaders Summit on May 14?

Friendship

$86k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended
O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

No

$114k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended
M
Meta "Mango" model released by...?

March 31

$32k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
W
W15 Monastir: Asmi Adkar vs Ai Maruyama

Tennis · Sports

W15 Monastir: Asmi Adkar vs Ai Maruyama

Asmi Adkar

$430 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
I
Iasi (Doubles): Albot/Cornea vs Gornes/Walkow

Tennis · Sports

Iasi (Doubles): Albot/Cornea vs Gornes/Walkow

Albot/Cornea

$567 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
P
Plovdiv (Doubles): Dev/Sinha vs Sueoka/Tajima

Tennis · Sports

Plovdiv (Doubles): Dev/Sinha vs Sueoka/Tajima

Dev/Sinha

$215 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
I
ITF Kayseri: Dev Javia vs Maxim Shin

Tennis · Sports

ITF Kayseri: Dev Javia vs Maxim Shin

Dev Javia

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
I
Iasi (Doubles): Banthia/Donski vs Albot/Cornea

Tennis · Sports

Iasi (Doubles): Banthia/Donski vs Albot/Cornea

Banthia/Donski

$88 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended