AI Development Predictions & Odds· 111 markets

O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

18%

Yes

$271k Vol.
$21k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

26%

Yes

$512 Vol.
$114 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

8%

Yes

$150k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
E
Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

2%

Yes

$11k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

53%

Anthropic

$6k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

4%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

53%

Anthropic

$26k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

50%

Other

$42k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

34%

Google

$65k Vol.
$64k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

61%

Anthropic

$92k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

63%

Alibaba

$49k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

14%

December 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

20%

December 31

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

25%

December 31, 2026

$437k Vol.
$18k Liq.
46
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

19%

OpenAI

$10k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

16%

OpenAI

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

38%

1560

$223k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?

64%

OpenAI

$189k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in 8 days