The Holdovers Predictions & Odds· 4101 markets

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%

Yes

$67.4m Vol.
$602k Liq.
🔥$365k today
1
Ends in 3 months
W
Which party will win the House in 2026?

Which party will win the House in 2026?

93%

Democratic Party

$11.9m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
🔥$249k today
1
Ends in about 1 month
P
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

52%

Gadi Eizenkot

$38.3m Vol.
$2.6m Liq.
🔥$208k today
701
Ends in 3 months
U
United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?

55%

340–354

$1.4m Vol.
$204k Liq.
🔥$172k today
32
Ended
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Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

78%

No Meeting by September 30

$6.3m Vol.
$844k Liq.
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W
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

0%

Yes

$2.4m Vol.
$223k Liq.
🔥$98k today
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W
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

4%

December 31

$68.6m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$73k today
1,692
Ends in 3 months
W
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

61%

Democratic Party

$4.8m Vol.
$697k Liq.
🔥$51k today
142
Ends in about 1 month
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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

7%

Yes

$26.2m Vol.
$588k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
A
AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?

82%

2

$192k Vol.
$76k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has the best AI model end of September?

98%

Anthropic

$3.6m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

94%

<35

$121k Vol.
$144k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
W
Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

89%

Anthropic

$349k Vol.
$677k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?

95%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

$69k Vol.
$88k Liq.
7
Ends in about 7 hours
W
Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Sports · UFC

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

88%

Justin Gaethje

$700k Vol.
$20k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
T
The Game Awards: Best Multiplayer

The Game Awards: Best Multiplayer

50%

Game A

$39k Vol.
$20k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
W
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

75%

1

$3.5m Vol.
$227k Liq.
27
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

6%

Yes

$10.7m Vol.
$66k Liq.
273
Ends in 3 months
W
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?

63%

October 1 - 31, 2026

$89k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
V
VMA Video of the Year 2026

VMA Video of the Year 2026

59%

The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift)

$10k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 7 days