Nuclear Deal Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

U
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

11%

December 31

$17.7m Vol.
$493k Liq.
🔥$60k today
156
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?

8%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

5%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

14%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$901k Vol.
$292k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?

1%

Yes

$74k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
W
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

5%

Yes

$213k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

7%

December 31

$17.9m Vol.
$156k Liq.
218
Ends in 3 months
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

13%

Yes

$1.8m Vol.
$60k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

7%

Yes

$27k Vol.
$9k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
U
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

14%

Yes

$243k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

7%

Yes

$823k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

Iran · Trump

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

8%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$527 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
I
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by...?

96%

Yes

$27k Vol.
$628 Liq.
7
Ended
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%

December 31

$29.5m Vol.
$166k Liq.
195
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%

Yes

$792k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
E
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

8%

Yes

$267k Vol.
$16k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

6%

Yes

$620k Vol.
$10k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

8%

Yes

$237 Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia nuclear test by...?

Russia nuclear test by...?

5%

December 31, 2026

$6.2m Vol.
$35k Liq.
10
Ends in 3 months