Safe Superintelligence Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

S
Switzerland’s September Referendum: What will pass?

3%

Food initiative

$48k Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
V
VMA Best Hip-Hop 2026

VMA Best Hip-Hop 2026

72%

Safe (Cardi B featuring Kehlani)

$102 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

12%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$164 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$99k Vol.
$5k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

38%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

78%

October 31

$8k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

25%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

42%

0

$112k Vol.
$72k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

12%

Yes

$131k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

56%

Hodge Conjecture

$23k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

60%

Hodge Conjecture

$165k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
A
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$279k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$1k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$123 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$507 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

16%

December 31, 2026

$483 Vol.
$957 Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$122 Vol.
$730 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

33%

55%+

$60k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%

Yes

$792k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

56%

OpenAI

$461 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year