Open Source Intel Predictions & Odds· 114 markets

U
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

8%

Yes

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
N
New MAI thinking model released by...?

New MAI thinking model released by...?

57%

December 31

$489 Vol.
$359 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?

87%

$900B-$1.00T

$28k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
O
OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?

OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?

36%

$900B-$1.00T

$7k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

$11k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?

88%

Anthropic

$62k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?

88%

Anthropic

$23k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

86%

October 31

$11k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

77%

Anthropic

$23k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?

Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?

32%

October 31

$22k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
N
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

99%

November 30

$48k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?

87%

Anthropic

$64k Vol.
$57k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
G
GPT-7 released by...?

GPT-7 released by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$14k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limit by...?

89%

September 24

$7k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 days
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

12%

Yes

$31k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

34%

December 31, 2026

$430k Vol.
$12k Liq.
45
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$266k Vol.
$24k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI IPO by...?

OpenAI IPO by...?

57%

June 30, 2027

$3.0m Vol.
$97k Liq.
14
Ends in 3 months
S
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

56%

SpaceX

$12k Vol.
$219 Liq.
5
Ends in over 1 year