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Open Source Intel Predictions & Odds· 114 markets

AllSportsPoliticsEsportsIranUSRussiaUkraineFinanceTrumpMiddle EastIsraelRegulationSam AltmanWorld AffairsNetanyahuAIMilitary ActionsGptOpenAIAnthropicLlmMicrosoftUnited KingdomTechOutageGeopoliticsGamesCreatorsOpen Source IntelChatgptRecurringWorldBig TechGPT 5Rainbow Six SiegeClaudeOutagesPrivatesLlamaOpenAI IPOCodexOpen SourceAI ReleasesAI RankingsAI RegulationLiveBenchGPT LunaAI Safety
U
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

Tech·AI

US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

8%

Yes

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

Tech·AI

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

5%

Yes

$18k Vol.
$180 Liq.
Ends in 11 days
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

Tech·AI

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$3k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
N
New MAI thinking model released by...?

Tech·AI

New MAI thinking model released by...?

57%

December 31

$489 Vol.
$370 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?

Finance·AI

OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?

87%

$900B-$1.00T

$27k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
O
OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?

Finance·AI

OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?

36%

$900B-$1.00T

$6k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

Tech·AI

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

53%

2

$10k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?

Tech·AI

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?

87%

Anthropic

$62k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?

Tech·AI

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?

90%

Anthropic

$22k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

Tech·AI

Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

98%

November 30

$45k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Tech·AI

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

84%

October 31

$9k Vol.
$2k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
R
Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Imperial Esports (BO1) - South America League Stage 2 Group Stage

Esports · Rainbow Six Siege

Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Imperial Esports (BO1) - South America League Stage 2 Group Stage

51%

LOUD

$0 Vol.
$135 Liq.
Ends in about 19 hours
O
OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limit by...?

Tech·AI

OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limit by...?

89%

September 24

$6k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

Tech·AI

US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

13%

Yes

$30k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Tech·OpenAI

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

41%

December 31, 2026

$404k Vol.
$12k Liq.
40
Ends in 3 months
U
UK strike on Iran before July?

Geopolitics·Middle East

UK strike on Iran before July?

No

$334k Vol.
$0 Liq.
17
Ended
W
Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?

Geopolitics·Middle East

Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?

No

$87k Vol.
$0 Liq.
6
Ended
I
Israel military action against Iraq before December?

Politics·Middle East

Israel military action against Iraq before December?

No

$211k Vol.
$0 Liq.
112
Ended
W
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?

World·Ukraine

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?

No

$214k Vol.
$0 Liq.
438
Ended
W
Will Netanyahu visit Egypt in 2024?

Politics·netanyahu

Will Netanyahu visit Egypt in 2024?

No

$30k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended

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