AI Releases Predictions & Odds· 200 markets

O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

18%

Yes

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30
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

17%

Yes

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S
Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

1%

Yes

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W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

34%

December 31, 2026

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46
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G
GPT-7 released by...?

GPT-7 released by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

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U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

12%

Yes

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W
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?

3%

Yes

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W
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

21%

Clip-on device for clothing

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A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

16%

June 30, 2027

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F
FTC opens investigation into AI book destruction in 2026?

19%

Yes

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A
AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?

6%

Yes

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H
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?

9%

Yes

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5
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W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

27%

Moonshot

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M
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

19%

December 31

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409
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N
New MAI thinking model released by...?

New MAI thinking model released by...?

56%

December 31

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W
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

16%

Yes

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H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

61%

0

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S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

57%

December 31

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A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

33%

October 31

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U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

10%

Yes

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