AI Development Predictions & Odds· 110 markets

O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$266k Vol.
$30k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

33%

Yes

$318 Vol.
$210 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$143k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
E
Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

2%

Yes

$11k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

52%

Anthropic

$5k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

4%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

53%

Anthropic

$26k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

50%

Other

$40k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

59%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$59k Vol.
$59k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

62%

Anthropic

$83k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

65%

Alibaba

$47k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

42%

December 31, 2026

$1k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

14%

December 31

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

21%

December 31, 2026

$427k Vol.
$8k Liq.
45
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?

53%

OpenAI

$76k Vol.
$26k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

27%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?

3%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months