Acting Predictions & Odds· 340 markets

W
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

52%

USA

$11k Vol.
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N
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

87%

December 31, 2026

$6k Vol.
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W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

19%

OpenAI

$10k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
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U
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

28%

October 31

$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

18%

OpenAI

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

82%

October 31

$109 Vol.
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E
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?

65%

December 31

$26k Vol.
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2
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F
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?

9%

Yes

$38k Vol.
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U
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

40%

October 31

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W
Will Faker become president of South Korea by the end of the year?

lol · Sports

Will Faker become president of South Korea by the end of the year?

5%

Yes

$223 Vol.
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4
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

87%

October 31

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3
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A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

53%

October 31

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1
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W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

34%

Google

$71k Vol.
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2
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K
Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

30%

December 31

$681 Vol.
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U
US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%

December 31, 2026

$0 Vol.
$127 Liq.
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I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

1%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$16k Liq.
1
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U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

62%

December 31

$31.0m Vol.
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🔥$809k today
602
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

6%

Yes

$83k Vol.
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3
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C
Canada applies for full EU membership by...?

Canada applies for full EU membership by...?

20%

December 31, 2027

$2k Vol.
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1
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W
Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

50%

Candidate A

$2k Vol.
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