Acting Predictions & Odds· 337 markets

U
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

28%

October 31

$246 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
E
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?

67%

December 31

$23k Vol.
$6k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

16%

OpenAI

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
U
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

28%

October 31

$101k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
K
Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

32%

December 31

$621 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?

9%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

86%

October 31

$11k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Faker become president of South Korea by the end of the year?

lol · Sports

Will Faker become president of South Korea by the end of the year?

5%

Yes

$223 Vol.
$626 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

47%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
C
Canada applies for full EU membership by...?

Canada applies for full EU membership by...?

22%

December 31, 2027

$2k Vol.
$17k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

36%

Google

$63k Vol.
$60k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
N
Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

50%

Person A

$34k Vol.
$238k Liq.
3
Ends in over 1 year
W
Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

50%

Candidate A

$1k Vol.
$53k Liq.
Ends in over 2 years
U
US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%

December 31, 2026

$0 Vol.
$147 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

3%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$16k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

64%

December 31

$30.2m Vol.
$550k Liq.
🔥$246k today
596
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

6%

Yes

$83k Vol.
$19k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran invades Kuwait by...?

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

6%

December 31

$1.1m Vol.
$53k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?

48%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$362 Liq.
Ends in 3 months