US Iran Predictions & Odds· 409 markets

U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

98%

September 25

$2.8m Vol.
$457k Liq.
🔥$362k today
Ends in about 1 month
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

17%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$1.1m Vol.
$279k Liq.
🔥$59k today
8
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

12%

December 31

$18.1m Vol.
$458k Liq.
157
Ended
U
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

8%

Yes

$1.3m Vol.
$30k Liq.
8
Ends in 6 days
W
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

85%

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

$1.0m Vol.
$225k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
N
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

71%

December 31, 2026

$44k Vol.
$65k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

30%

USA

$28k Vol.
$139k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

50%

September 3

$66 Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

30%

October 31

$372k Vol.
$26k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 days
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

3%

Yes

$7.8m Vol.
$67k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

4%

Yes

$160k Vol.
$15k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
U
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

4%

Yes

$638k Vol.
$30k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
U
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

6%

December 31

$29.5m Vol.
$169k Liq.
195
Ends in 3 months
U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

79%

March 31

$31.7m Vol.
$515k Liq.
🔥$466k today
610
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: September

Nothing Ever Happens: September

99%

Nothing

$7k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
U
US charges Hormuz fees by...?

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

5%

Yes

$984k Vol.
$34k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

28%

December 31

$3.1m Vol.
$84k Liq.
20
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%

Yes

$797k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27)

96%

Tech

$8k Vol.
$322 Liq.
Ends in 3 days
U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

August 22

$6.3m Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month