US Iran Predictions & Odds· 409 markets

U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

97%

September 25

$2.6m Vol.
$394k Liq.
🔥$368k today
Ends in about 1 month
U
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

12%

December 31

$18.1m Vol.
$448k Liq.
🔥$81k today
157
Ended
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$1.0m Vol.
$249k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

78%

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

$1.0m Vol.
$186k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
N
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

73%

December 31, 2026

$31k Vol.
$37k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

26%

No Meeting by December 31

$23k Vol.
$140k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

5%

Yes

$1.3m Vol.
$47k Liq.
8
Ends in 7 days
U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

50%

September 3

$66 Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

28%

October 31

$370k Vol.
$17k Liq.
6
Ends in 7 days
W
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

4%

Yes

$160k Vol.
$14k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

3%

Yes

$7.8m Vol.
$67k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

4%

Yes

$638k Vol.
$26k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
U
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

6%

December 31

$29.5m Vol.
$152k Liq.
195
Ends in 3 months
U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

80%

March 31

$31.4m Vol.
$385k Liq.
🔥$326k today
607
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: September

Nothing Ever Happens: September

98%

Nothing

$7k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
U
US charges Hormuz fees by...?

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

5%

Yes

$984k Vol.
$36k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

28%

December 31

$3.1m Vol.
$78k Liq.
20
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%

Yes

$797k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27)

27%

NATO

$8k Vol.
$901 Liq.
Ends in 3 days
W
What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

95%

Nuclear

$27k Vol.
$16k Liq.
1
Ends in about 10 hours