US Iran Predictions & Odds· 409 markets

U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

97%

September 25

$2.3m Vol.
$587k Liq.
🔥$219k today
Ends in about 1 month
U
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

12%

December 31

$18.1m Vol.
$474k Liq.
🔥$127k today
157
Ended
W
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

86%

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

$990k Vol.
$242k Liq.
🔥$79k today
Ends in 9 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$1000k Vol.
$272k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
N
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

87%

December 31, 2026

$17k Vol.
$55k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

36%

USA

$15k Vol.
$124k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

7%

Yes

$1.3m Vol.
$44k Liq.
8
Ends in 7 days
U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

50%

September 3

$66 Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

28%

October 31

$369k Vol.
$30k Liq.
6
Ends in 7 days
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

3%

Yes

$7.8m Vol.
$69k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

5%

Yes

$160k Vol.
$13k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

0%

Yes

$19k Vol.
$27k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

4%

Yes

$638k Vol.
$26k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
U
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

6%

December 31

$29.5m Vol.
$162k Liq.
195
Ends in 3 months
U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

62%

December 31

$31.2m Vol.
$404k Liq.
🔥$453k today
604
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: September

Nothing Ever Happens: September

98%

Nothing

$3k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
U
US charges Hormuz fees by...?

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

6%

Yes

$984k Vol.
$35k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

25%

December 31

$3.1m Vol.
$83k Liq.
20
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%

Yes

$796k Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27)

73%

Vote / Voter / Votes

$7k Vol.
$752 Liq.
Ends in 4 days