Robot Dreams Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

4%

Yes

$124k Vol.
$2k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

39%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

81%

October 31

$8k Vol.
$2k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

10%

Yes

$32k Vol.
$156 Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
S
Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

6%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

25%

#3

$242k Vol.
$13k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?

54%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$445 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

56%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

8%

Yes

$22k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

42%

0

$112k Vol.
$55k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

43%

1470+

$32k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$1k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$58k Vol.
$31k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?

81%

OpenAI

$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

66%

Z.ai

$125k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

15%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$387 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

68%

Moonshot

$57k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$132k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months