Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 128 markets

I
Iceland EU referendum passes?

Iceland EU referendum passes?

0%

Yes

$277k Vol.
$48k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

66%

December 31

$771k Vol.
$81k Liq.
35
Ends in 3 months
N
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

62%

March 31, 2027

$11.7m Vol.
$231k Liq.
🔥$61k today
Ends in 6 months
W
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

80%

No Meeting by September 30

$6.3m Vol.
$887k Liq.
🔥$144k today
Ends in 10 days
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

17%

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

$945k Vol.
$227k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

82%

December 31

$243k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will Trump speak to in September?

Who will Trump speak to in September?

96%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$154k Vol.
$99k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
W
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

18%

Yes

$119k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

5%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

27%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
S
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

18%

October 31

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Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

14%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$247k Liq.
35
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

71%

December 31, 2027

$7.8m Vol.
$912k Liq.
216
Ends in 9 months
U
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

91%

Yes

$257k Vol.
$53k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

5%

September 30

$13k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
I
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

4%

Yes

$98k Vol.
$910 Liq.
Ends in 10 days
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

7%

Yes

$824k Vol.
$37k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

25%

Mexico

$393k Vol.
$118k Liq.
Ends in 3 months