Initial Jobless Claims Predictions & Odds· 234 markets

I
In which month will Anthropic IPO?

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

54%

November 2026

$259k Vol.
$63k Liq.
4
Ends in over 1 year
L
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?

IPOs · OpenAI

Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?

80%

Goldman Sachs

$54k Vol.
$26k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
L
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

77%

Morgan Stanley

$67k Vol.
$17k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
U
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

67%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$96k Vol.
$5k Liq.
7
Ends in 4 months
H
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5%

5.0%

$517k Vol.
$13k Liq.
21
Ends in 6 months
W
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

9%

Yes

$10k Vol.
$461 Liq.
2
Ends in 5 months
T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

91%

Up

$26k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
J
JOLTS Job Openings: August 2026

JOLTS Job Openings: August 2026

28%

7.2M to 7.3M

$9k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
U
UK Recession in 2026?

UK Recession in 2026?

4%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
E
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?

67%

December 31

$26k Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
H
How many jobs added in September?

How many jobs added in September?

34%

50k to 100k

$11k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
C
Core PCE MoM - August 2026

Core PCE MoM - August 2026

70%

0.3%

$18k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
Will Paychex (PAYX) beat quarterly earnings?

46%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$345 Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours
W
Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

50%

Other

$111k Vol.
$175k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
E
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

49%

0-1.0%

$54k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
W
Will FactSet (FDS) beat quarterly earnings?

65%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$552 Liq.
Ends in 8 days
I
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

4%

September 30

$13k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in 8 days
C
Core PCE YoY - August 2026

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

31%

3.2%

$44k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
M
MS-03 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

50%

Person A

$8k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
S
Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

17%

December 31, 2028

$929 Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years