Humanitarian Pause Predictions & Odds· 110 markets

W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

20%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

26%

OpenAI

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

8%

Yes

$119k Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ended
S
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

24%

October 31

$26k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

14%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$248k Liq.
35
Ends in 3 months
U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

64%

December 31

$30.1m Vol.
$423k Liq.
🔥$326k today
594
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

71%

December 31, 2027

$7.8m Vol.
$828k Liq.
🔥$53k today
216
Ends in 9 months
U
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?

3%

September 30

$44k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

3%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

37%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$964 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

3%

September 30

$13k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 days
S
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?

78%

October 31

$869k Vol.
$89k Liq.
🔥$197k today
49
Ends in 9 days
W
Will Israel announce 24h+ humanitarian pause by Nov 30?

Yes

$53k Vol.
$0 Liq.
12
Ended
W
Will US resume UNRWA funding before March?

No

$48k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?

July 31

$5.6m Vol.
$0 Liq.
190
Ended
T
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?

Yes

$1.2m Vol.
$0 Liq.
33
Ended
H
Humanitarian airdrops over Gaza by August 8?

Yes

$23k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
W
Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by Jan 15?

No

$24k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended