Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 122 markets

F
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

56%

Bia Kicis

$46k Vol.
$101k Liq.
1
Ends in 14 days
F
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

3%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

89%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$29k Vol.
$94k Liq.
1
Ends in 14 days
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

14%

Yes

$81k Vol.
$15k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
D
Daejon Love pleads guilty to federal crime by...?

62%

June 30, 2027

$328 Vol.
$317 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

34%

Yes

$284 Vol.
$219 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

12%

Yes

$345 Vol.
$288 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

91%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$34k Vol.
$164k Liq.
Ends in 14 days
F
Federal District Governor Election Winner

81%

Celina Leão

$17k Vol.
$85k Liq.
1
Ends in 14 days
W
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

25%

Yes

$10 Vol.
$475 Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
F
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

1%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 12 days
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

54%

4.25%

$6.9m Vol.
$434k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
S
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

70%

VAT federal decree

$9k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

99%

Rigetti

$187k Vol.
$7k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

71%

December 31

$26k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

36%

Hike–Pause–Hike

$90k Vol.
$151k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

2%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

68%

25 bps increase

$1.1m Vol.
$632k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?

55%

25 bps increase

$7.8m Vol.
$2.9m Liq.
🔥$94k today
Ends in about 1 month
F
Fed Decision in January?

Fed Decision in January?

57%

No change

$94k Vol.
$297k Liq.
Ends in 4 months