Federal Government Predictions & Odds· 1238 markets

W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

43%

Unusual Machines

$194k Vol.
$7k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

$1.2m Vol.
$308k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
J
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?

Jerome Powell federally charged by...?

1%

Yes

$319k Vol.
$2k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
G
Government shutdown by October 1?

Government shutdown by October 1?

0%

Yes

$17k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
O
Obama federally charged before 2027?

Obama federally charged before 2027?

4%

Yes

$11k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

3%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
E
E. Jean Carroll federally charged by...?

27%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$58 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Trump nationalize elections?

Will Trump nationalize elections?

9%

Yes

$21k Vol.
$16k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

92%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

$344k Vol.
$108k Liq.
12
Ends in 4 months
U
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

8%

Yes

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
G
Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?

8%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$10k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

13%

Yes

$85k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?

9%

Yes

$35k Vol.
$7k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?

50%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$441 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

14%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?

21%

Yes

$95k Vol.
$117 Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

56%

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$50k Vol.
$71k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 year
S
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

14%

December 31

$6k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

16%

Yes

$54k Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
M
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

6%

Yes

$78k Vol.
$3k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months