US Law Predictions & Odds· 209 markets

C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

45%

Yes

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1
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W
Which bills will become law in 2026?

Which bills will become law in 2026?

34%

AI-chip export licensing

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W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

17%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$1.1m Vol.
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8
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C
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

7%

Yes

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B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

63%

Democrats Sweep

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W
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

16%

John Fetterman

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W
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

7%

Yes

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9
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U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

12%

Yes

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W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

19%

Vietnam

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W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

98%

Yes

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2
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R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

2%

Yes

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10
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D
DOJ fines Nvidia over Groq deal in 2026?

DOJ fines Nvidia over Groq deal in 2026?

12%

Yes

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S
SPLC found guilty in 2026?

SPLC found guilty in 2026?

8%

Yes

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W
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%

Yes

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U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

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T
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?

3%

Yes

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U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

11%

Yes

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O
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?

OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?

42%

Yes

$850 Vol.
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A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

93%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

$342k Vol.
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12
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U
US military draft authorized in 2026?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%

Yes

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11
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