Trade Deal Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

19%

Mexico

$396k Vol.
$117k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

92%

December 31

$287k Vol.
$71k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$1.0m Vol.
$267k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

43%

December 31

$202k Vol.
$43k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

18%

Yes

$436k Vol.
$1k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
T
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

12%

Yes

$56k Vol.
$1k Liq.
5
Ends in 4 months
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

7%

Yes

$825k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

3%

Yes

$629k Vol.
$11k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

6%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

13%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$296 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?

8%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?

63%

December 31

$1k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

Iran · Trump

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

7%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$608 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

10%

Yes

$37k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

4%

Yes

$150k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?

58%

October 31

$3k Vol.
$237 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%

Yes

$797k Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

9%

Yes

$348 Vol.
$304 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
W
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

9%

Kuwait

$1.7m Vol.
$159k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by...?

25%

December 31

$64k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ended