US Canada Trade War Predictions & Odds· 104 markets

U
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

43%

December 31

$191k Vol.
$27k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
C
Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?

4%

Yes

$106 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Canada imposes Welland Canal toll on US ships by September 30?

2%

Yes

$602 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
C
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?

6%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?

60%

December 31

$1k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?

59%

October 31

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

12%

Yes

$56k Vol.
$1k Liq.
5
Ends in 4 months
U
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

91%

Yes

$265k Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

7%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China Military clash before 2027?

US x China Military clash before 2027?

3%

Yes

$213k Vol.
$24k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%

Yes

$795k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US Trade Deficit in 2026?

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

35%

800–900B

$25k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
W
White House # posts September 18 - September 25, 2026?

62%

200+

$7k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
W
White House # posts September 15 - September 22, 2026?

65%

200+

$15k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 17 hours
W
White House # posts September 22 - September 29, 2026?

57%

200+

$2k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
U
USMCA extended in 2026?

USMCA extended in 2026?

10%

Yes

$11k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
Another Canada election called by...?

Another Canada election called by...?

23%

Yes

$98k Vol.
$218 Liq.
40
Ends in 3 months
W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

20%

Mexico

$393k Vol.
$116k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

7%

Yes

$10k Vol.
$384 Liq.
2
Ends in 5 months
C
Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)

Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)

56%

0.0 to 0.1%

$10k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 8 days