Third Party Predictions & Odds· 228 markets

W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

34%

Google

$65k Vol.
$59k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
N
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

50%

New Zealand First Party

$16k Vol.
$64k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
R
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

99%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$260k Vol.
$43k Liq.
2
Ended
A
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?

Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?

62%

October 31

$80 Vol.
$63 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

45%

Renan Santos

$1.4m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$94k today
147
Ends in 12 days
U
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

33%

October 31

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
S
Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$71k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

14%

December 31, 2026

$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
T
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?

11%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
A
Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

82%

Democrat

$2k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
C
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?

90%

October 31

$40k Vol.
$49k Liq.
6
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?

65%

Yes

$391 Vol.
$48 Liq.
Ends in 4 months
K
Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

32%

December 31

$641 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
Oregon Senate Election Winner

Oregon Senate Election Winner

98%

Jeff Merkley (D)

$7k Vol.
$51k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
T
Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?

64%

December 31

$1k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?

59%

October 31

$3k Vol.
$325 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
B
Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

50%

Party A

$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 12 days
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

30%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$844 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

1%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$16k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months