Third Party Predictions & Odds· 243 markets

W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

29%

Google

$65k Vol.
$63k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
N
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

50%

New Zealand First Party

$16k Vol.
$35k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 year
R
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

99%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$259k Vol.
$46k Liq.
2
Ended
S
Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine

50%

Other

$2k Vol.
$68k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
B
Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

50%

Party A

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 12 days
V
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

62%

One Nation

$22k Vol.
$54k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
Q
Quebec General Election: Third Place

Quebec General Election: Third Place

50%

Party A

$15k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
M
Morocco Legislative Elections: 3rd Place

Morocco Legislative Elections: 3rd Place

50%

Party A

$42k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours
O
Ohio Senate and Governor Combo

Ohio Senate and Governor Combo

50%

Other

$10k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
M
Minnesota Senate and Governor Combo

Minnesota Senate and Governor Combo

91%

Dems sweep

$10k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
I
Iowa Senate and Governor Combo

Iowa Senate and Governor Combo

50%

Other

$13k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
U
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

14%

October 31

$986 Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
G
Georgia Senate and Governor Combo

Georgia Senate and Governor Combo

58%

Dems sweep

$8k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
T
Texas Senate and Governor Combo

Texas Senate and Governor Combo

50%

Other

$7k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
K
Kansas Senate and Governor Combo

Kansas Senate and Governor Combo

62%

Reps sweep

$13k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
M
Maine Senate and Governor Combo

Maine Senate and Governor Combo

70%

Dems sweep

$11k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

14%

December 31, 2026

$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
A
Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

73%

Dems sweep

$16k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
T
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?

14%

Yes

$7k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
M
Michigan Senate and Governor Combo

Michigan Senate and Governor Combo

69%

Dems sweep

$17k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in 6 months