Third Party Predictions & Odds· 242 markets

W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

29%

Google

$58k Vol.
$51k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
N
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

50%

New Zealand First Party

$16k Vol.
$49k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
R
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

63%

New People (NL)

$170k Vol.
$280k Liq.
1
Ended
B
Berlin State Election: 3rd Place

Berlin State Election: 3rd Place

62%

AfD

$52k Vol.
$120k Liq.
Ends in about 17 hours
S
Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine

50%

Other

$2k Vol.
$79k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
B
Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

50%

Party A

$2k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
V
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

61%

One Nation

$21k Vol.
$58k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
M
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

90%

Linke

$122k Vol.
$208k Liq.
Ended
Q
Quebec General Election: Third Place

Quebec General Election: Third Place

50%

Party A

$14k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
M
Morocco Legislative Elections: 3rd Place

51%

PI

$41k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
O
Ohio Senate and Governor Combo

Ohio Senate and Governor Combo

50%

Other

$9k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
Minnesota Senate and Governor Combo

Minnesota Senate and Governor Combo

92%

Dems sweep

$9k Vol.
$102k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
I
Iowa Senate and Governor Combo

Iowa Senate and Governor Combo

50%

Other

$11k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

8%

December 31, 2026

$1k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
G
Georgia Senate and Governor Combo

Georgia Senate and Governor Combo

56%

Dems sweep

$7k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
T
Texas Senate and Governor Combo

Texas Senate and Governor Combo

50%

Other

$5k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
K
Kansas Senate and Governor Combo

Kansas Senate and Governor Combo

63%

Reps sweep

$10k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
Maine Senate and Governor Combo

Maine Senate and Governor Combo

70%

Dems sweep

$11k Vol.
$37k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?

14%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
A
Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

68%

Dems sweep

$15k Vol.
$26k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month