Third Party Predictions & Odds· 226 markets

W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

29%

Google

$58k Vol.
$50k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
N
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

50%

New Zealand First Party

$16k Vol.
$49k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
R
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

65%

New People (NL)

$170k Vol.
$431k Liq.
1
Ended
B
Berlin State Election: 3rd Place

Berlin State Election: 3rd Place

60%

AfD

$50k Vol.
$146k Liq.
Ends in about 20 hours
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

12%

December 31, 2026

$540 Vol.
$969 Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

52%

Renan Santos

$1.3m Vol.
$752k Liq.
137
Ends in 14 days
T
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?

16%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
S
Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine

50%

Other

$2k Vol.
$79k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

57%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
A
Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

82%

Democrat

$2k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
K
Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

32%

December 31

$419 Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?

69%

Yes

$331 Vol.
$302 Liq.
Ends in 4 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?

62%

December 31

$1k Vol.
$799 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?

59%

October 31

$3k Vol.
$336 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

31%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

4%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$9k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
B
Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

50%

Party A

$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
M
Minnesota Senate and Governor Combo

Minnesota Senate and Governor Combo

92%

Dems sweep

$9k Vol.
$101k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
G
Georgia Senate and Governor Combo

Georgia Senate and Governor Combo

56%

Dems sweep

$7k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month