Open Source Intel Predictions & Odds· 1721 markets

U
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

8%

Yes

$5k Vol.
$959 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$3k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
C
ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

15%

Yes

$18k Vol.
$154 Liq.
Ends in 10 days
N
New MAI thinking model released by...?

New MAI thinking model released by...?

57%

December 31

$489 Vol.
$316 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?

87%

$900B-$1.00T

$27k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

83%

October 31

$11k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?

OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?

36%

$900B-$1.00T

$6k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

$10k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
C
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN Group A

73%

Liquid

$7 Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
N
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?

Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?

54%

November 30

$17k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?

88%

Anthropic

$62k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
N
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

98%

November 30

$47k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
O
OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limit by...?

86%

September 24

$6k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?

86%

Anthropic

$23k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
G
GPT-7 released by...?

GPT-7 released by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$14k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?

86%

Anthropic

$64k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 21 - September 27?

28%

≤6

$1k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
N
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

87%

October 31

$19k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$234k Vol.
$37k Liq.
4
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

77%

Anthropic

$23k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month