Open Source Intel Predictions & Odds· 1745 markets

U
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

8%

Yes

$5k Vol.
$928 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$3k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
C
ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

9%

Yes

$18k Vol.
$154 Liq.
Ends in 10 days
N
New MAI thinking model released by...?

New MAI thinking model released by...?

57%

December 31

$489 Vol.
$330 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?

86%

$900B-$1.00T

$27k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

84%

October 31

$11k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?

OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?

36%

$900B-$1.00T

$6k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

54%

2

$10k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
C
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN Group A

74%

Liquid

$7 Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
R
Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Imperial Esports (BO1) - South America League Stage 2 Group Stage

Esports · Rainbow Six Siege

Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Imperial Esports (BO1) - South America League Stage 2 Group Stage

0%

LOUD

$1k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
N
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?

Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?

53%

November 30

$17k Vol.
$699 Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?

86%

Anthropic

$62k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
N
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

98%

November 30

$47k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
O
OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limit by...?

82%

September 24

$6k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?

79%

Anthropic

$23k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
G
GPT-7 released by...?

GPT-7 released by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$14k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
H
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 21 - September 27?

31%

≤6

$809 Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?

86%

Anthropic

$64k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
O
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$227k Vol.
$31k Liq.
4
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

73%

Anthropic

$23k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month