Artificial Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 119 markets

W
What will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?

85%

Terror / Terrorism

$24k Vol.
$15k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 days
W
What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

93%

Antisemitic / Antisemitism

$6k Vol.
$4k Liq.
1
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T
TIME Person of the Year 2026

TIME Person of the Year 2026

35%

Zohran Mamdani

$53k Vol.
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9
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W
What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 23)

96%

Money

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$2k Liq.
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W
What will BlackBerry say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

$823 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
W
What will Cracker Barrel say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

$955 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$264k Vol.
$24k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

34%

Yes

$284 Vol.
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O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

57%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
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S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

52%

Anthropic

$5k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

7%

Yes

$444 Vol.
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T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

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O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

33%

December 31, 2026

$1k Vol.
$1k Liq.
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S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

79%

Anthropic

$80k Vol.
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Ends in 11 days
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

12%

Yes

$3.0m Vol.
$16k Liq.
96
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

27%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
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1
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T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

64%

Alibaba

$46k Vol.
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W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

29%

Google

$58k Vol.
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2
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U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

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W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

43%

December 31, 2026

$405k Vol.
$9k Liq.
41
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