AI Releases Predictions & Odds· 106 markets

N
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

85%

October 31

$19k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$266k Vol.
$22k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

11%

Yes

$31k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

4%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

34%

December 31, 2026

$430k Vol.
$14k Liq.
46
Ends in 3 months
G
GPT-7 released by...?

GPT-7 released by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$14k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

7%

Yes

$149k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

86%

October 31

$11k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?

3%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by...?

Ren Zhengfei public appearance by...?

75%

December 31

$12k Vol.
$3k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

11%

Yes

$3.0m Vol.
$25k Liq.
97
Ends in 3 months
W
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

25%

Earbuds/Headphones

$436k Vol.
$25k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
A
AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?

12%

Yes

$445 Vol.
$420 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

40%

Google

$63k Vol.
$56k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
N
New MAI thinking model released by...?

New MAI thinking model released by...?

57%

December 31

$489 Vol.
$335 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

12%

Yes

$79k Vol.
$3k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

47%

0

$139k Vol.
$63k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$100k Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

43%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
H
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?

5%

Yes

$6k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months