Nuclear Deal Predictions & Odds· 134 markets

U
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

13%

December 31

$18.2m Vol.
$455k Liq.
🔥$64k today
157
Ended
U
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?

11%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

5%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?

1%

Yes

$74k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
W
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

5%

Yes

$213k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

8%

December 31

$17.9m Vol.
$148k Liq.
219
Ends in 3 months
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

12%

Yes

$1.8m Vol.
$105k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

13%

Yes

$260k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

6%

Yes

$27k Vol.
$614 Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

7%

Yes

$825k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

Iran · Trump

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

7%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$603 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: September

Nothing Ever Happens: September

99%

Nothing

$7k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

6%

December 31

$29.5m Vol.
$171k Liq.
195
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%

Yes

$797k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
E
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

8%

Yes

$268k Vol.
$17k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

3%

Yes

$629k Vol.
$12k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

9%

Yes

$348 Vol.
$345 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Yes

$399k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

No

$6.9m Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended