Leadership Changes Predictions & Odds· 104 markets

I
Iran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by...?

27%

June 30, 2027

$26.0m Vol.
$593k Liq.
1,089
Ends in 9 months
C
Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

11%

Yes

$1.7m Vol.
$32k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
K
Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

33%

December 31

$681 Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
B
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

50%

Person A

$653 Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
N
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

28%

March 31, 2027

$278k Vol.
$20k Liq.
24
Ends in 6 months
N
Next leader out of power before 2027?

Next leader out of power before 2027?

36%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$563k Vol.
$668k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

5%

Yes

$308k Vol.
$19k Liq.
12
Ends in 3 months
J
Joe Marsh out as T1 CEO by December 31?

T1 · lol

Joe Marsh out as T1 CEO by December 31?

52%

Yes

$0 Vol.
$21 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
M
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

25%

September 30

$1.8m Vol.
$30k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
G
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

13%

Yes

$487k Vol.
$4k Liq.
69
Ends in 3 months
P
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

12%

Yes

$159k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$1.0m Vol.
$265k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
D
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

5%

Yes

$6k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

Ceasefire

$101k Vol.
$0 Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
M
Manchester United sacks Erik ten Hag?

EPL · Sports

Manchester United sacks Erik ten Hag?

No

$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
W
Which Soccer Managers will be Sacked?

EPL · Sports

Which Soccer Managers will be Sacked?

Mauricio Pochettino

$32k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
W
Who will replace Larry Fink as BlackRock CEO?

Business

Who will replace Larry Fink as BlackRock CEO?

No announcement in 2024

$1.2m Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended
A
Any Hamas leader out in January?

No

$4k Vol.
$0 Liq.
9
Ended
M
Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

No

$75k Vol.
$0 Liq.
10
Ended
K
Katherine Maher out as NPR CEO in April?

Business · All

Katherine Maher out as NPR CEO in April?

No

$7k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended