Humanitarian Pause Predictions & Odds· 106 markets

W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

27%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

43%

OpenAI

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

24%

October 31

$3k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

5%

September 30

$13k Vol.
$29k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

35%

Hike–Hike–Hike

$94k Vol.
$101k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

8%

Yes

$119k Vol.
$11k Liq.
2
Ended
S
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

19%

October 31

$20k Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

14%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$264k Liq.
35
Ends in 3 months
U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

62%

December 31

$30.0m Vol.
$453k Liq.
🔥$287k today
590
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

1%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$14k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

37%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

25%

October 31

$66k Vol.
$58k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

72%

December 31, 2027

$7.8m Vol.
$837k Liq.
🔥$57k today
216
Ends in 9 months
S
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?

77%

October 31

$850k Vol.
$82k Liq.
🔥$200k today
48
Ends in 10 days
T
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?

48%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$462 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
C
Counter-Strike: Village vs TenToesDown (BO3) - FRAG Midwest St. Louis Group D

27%

Village

$12 Vol.
$83 Liq.
Ended
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
I
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

18%

December 31

$4.1m Vol.
$11k Liq.
979
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be said during the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match?
$29k Vol.
$0 Liq.
17
Ended
N
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

96%

45%+

$24k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months