Economic Policy Predictions & Odds· 106 markets

U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

20%

Yes

$436k Vol.
$1k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

54%

<2.75%

$560 Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

77%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$91k Vol.
$8k Liq.
7
Ends in 4 months
W
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

72%

Yashar

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

89%

Ra'am

$4k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
B
Bank of Israel Decision in October?

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

78%

No Change

$29k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
P
PPI YoY - September 2026

PPI YoY - September 2026

34%

5.9%+

$12k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 24 days
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

20%

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

$965k Vol.
$305k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$317 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
R
Reserve Bank of India decision in October

Reserve Bank of India decision in October

78%

25 bps increase

$22k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 14 days
B
Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

84%

No change

$130k Vol.
$92k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
J
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

4%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$116 Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

61%

None before 2027

$71k Vol.
$313k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Core PCE MoM - August 2026

Core PCE MoM - August 2026

70%

0.3%

$18k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
U
UK Recession in 2026?

UK Recession in 2026?

4%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$4k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
U
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

10%

Yes

$2.0m Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Core PCE YoY - August 2026

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

34%

3.4%

$43k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
E
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

49%

0-1.0%

$54k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
B
Bank of Brazil decision in November?

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

73%

25 bps decrease

$23k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

64%

↓ 0.0030

$193k Vol.
$25k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months