Gerrymander Predictions & Odds· 100 markets

M
Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?

36%

Yes

$95 Vol.
$169 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
Maryland passes redistricting requirements ballot measure?

72%

Yes

$0 Vol.
$50 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
G
GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?

59%

Iowa

$849 Vol.
$782 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?

3%

Yes

$70k Vol.
$13k Liq.
22
Ends in about 1 month
D
Dems' best tossup Senate race?

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

37%

Michigan

$5k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

99%

Florida

$414k Vol.
$204k Liq.
5
Ends in about 1 month
C
Closest Senate Race?

Closest Senate Race?

14%

Texas

$46k Vol.
$183k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

98%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

17%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

$951k Vol.
$143k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
H
How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?

36%

22–23

$696k Vol.
$68k Liq.
4
Ends in about 1 month
2
2026 Midterms: House Turnout

2026 Midterms: House Turnout

26%

115-120m

$31k Vol.
$113k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

3%

Yes

$178k Vol.
$24k Liq.
10
Ends in 4 months
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

98%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
#
# of Republican House seats after Election? (brackets)

220-224

$1.6m Vol.
$0 Liq.
36
Ended
R
Reform share of votes in UK election?

11-15%

$42k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
#
# of Conservative seats after UK Election? (125-200)

<125

$283k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended
U
UK Election: Labour % of the vote?

UK Election · Global Elections

UK Election: Labour % of the vote?

30-35%

$113k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended
E
Election called by...?

Wednesday, Nov 6

$146k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
E
EU Election: Which party will win the most seats?

EPP

$30k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
W
Who will win each swing district?

Kent, MI (Grand Rapids)

$507k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended