Fourth Quarter Predictions & Odds· 104 markets

W
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

75%

1

$3.5m Vol.
$229k Liq.
27
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place

Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place

50%

Other

$14k Vol.
$84k Liq.
1
Ends in about 8 hours
B
Berlin State Election: 4th Place

Berlin State Election: 4th Place

84%

Grüne

$30k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in about 8 hours
C
China Annual GDP Growth 2026

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

90%

4.0–5.0%

$908k Vol.
$87k Liq.
17
Ends in 4 months
A
Amazon 2026 capex above ___?

Amazon 2026 capex above ___?

99%

$170 billion

$23k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
E
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

63%

0-1.0%

$51k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

16%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$905k Vol.
$282k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
M
MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

50%

Person A

$2k Vol.
$53k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
G
GA-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

50%

Person A

$3k Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
U
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

9%

Yes

$2.0m Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
UK Recession in 2026?

UK Recession in 2026?

4%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$4k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
B
Bundesliga Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)

Soccer · Sports

Bundesliga Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)

98%

Bayern Munich

$8k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 8 months
F
First Round Outright Winner in the LA-04 House Election?

96%

Yes

$727 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
W
WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory

WA-04 House Election Margin of Victory

50%

Person A

$0 Vol.
$670 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
J
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

4%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$139 Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
U
US recession by end of 2027?

US recession by end of 2027?

35%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
S
SC-04 House Election Margin of Victory

SC-04 House Election Margin of Victory

50%

Person A

$7k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
TX-04 House Election Margin of Victory

TX-04 House Election Margin of Victory

51%

Republican 10-15%

$5k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

89%

1-2%

$92k Vol.
$9k Liq.
1
Ends in 5 months
I
IA-04 House Election Winner

IA-04 House Election Winner

93%

Chris McGowan (R)

$36k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month