Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 120 markets

F
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

55%

Bia Kicis

$48k Vol.
$127k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

16%

Yes

$82k Vol.
$23k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

91%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$34k Vol.
$131k Liq.
Ends in 12 days
F
Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

91%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$30k Vol.
$122k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
F
Federal District Governor Election Winner

Federal District Governor Election Winner

83%

Celina Leão

$17k Vol.
$85k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

31%

Yes

$318 Vol.
$408 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
D
Daejon Love pleads guilty to federal crime by...?

62%

June 30, 2027

$328 Vol.
$451 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

25%

Yes

$10 Vol.
$680 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

11%

Yes

$345 Vol.
$306 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

2%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
F
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

2%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

53%

4.25%

$6.9m Vol.
$156k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
S
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

72%

VAT federal decree

$9k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

57%

December 31

$27k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

99%

Rigetti

$188k Vol.
$11k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

38%

Hike–Pause–Hike

$103k Vol.
$77k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

2%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

68%

25 bps increase

$1.2m Vol.
$584k Liq.
🔥$89k today
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?

53%

25 bps increase

$10.1m Vol.
$2.0m Liq.
🔥$1.1m today
Ends in about 1 month
F
Fed Decision in January?

Fed Decision in January?

56%

No change

$110k Vol.
$364k Liq.
Ends in 4 months