Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 122 markets

F
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

53%

Bia Kicis

$48k Vol.
$102k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

17%

Yes

$82k Vol.
$23k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

91%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$34k Vol.
$127k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
F
Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

91%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$30k Vol.
$128k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

31%

Yes

$318 Vol.
$535 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
D
Daejon Love pleads guilty to federal crime by...?

62%

June 30, 2027

$328 Vol.
$337 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

25%

Yes

$10 Vol.
$586 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal District Governor Election Winner

Federal District Governor Election Winner

84%

Celina Leão

$17k Vol.
$85k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
F
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

11%

Yes

$345 Vol.
$485 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

2%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
F
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

2%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
S
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

72%

VAT federal decree

$9k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

53%

4.25%

$6.9m Vol.
$158k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

56%

December 31

$27k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

99%

Rigetti

$188k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

38%

Hike–Pause–Hike

$101k Vol.
$75k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

2%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

68%

25 bps increase

$1.2m Vol.
$581k Liq.
🔥$89k today
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?

50%

No change

$9.9m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$1.1m today
Ends in about 1 month
F
Fed Decision in January?

Fed Decision in January?

56%

No change

$110k Vol.
$382k Liq.
Ends in 4 months