Economic Policy Predictions & Odds· 112 markets

W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

52%

None before 2027

$77k Vol.
$232k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
B
Bank of Israel Decision in October?

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

89%

No Change

$33k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 24 days
H
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?

35%

5

$10k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

41%

<2.75%

$608 Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

17%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

$1.1m Vol.
$246k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
W
What will Tucker Carlson say at AmericaFest on December 18?

Trump 10+ times

$15k Vol.
$0 Liq.
9
Ended
E
Ecuador Presidential Election

Daniel Noboa (ADN)

$4.9m Vol.
$0 Liq.
1,324
Ended
N
November Inflation

November Inflation

2.7%

$396k Vol.
$0 Liq.
21
Ended
J
January Unemployment Rate

≤4.0%

$48k Vol.
$0 Liq.
45
Ended
S
Sri Lanka Parliamentary Election

NPP

$84k Vol.
$0 Liq.
16
Ended
R
Romania Parliamentary Election

PSD

$3.3m Vol.
$0 Liq.
742
Ended
S
Spanish Election

All

Spanish Election

Will PP win a plurality?

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
[
[Single Markets] Democratic Nominee 2024

Kamala Harris

$7.2m Vol.
$0 Liq.
71
Ended
G
Ghana Presidential Election

John Mahama

$348k Vol.
$0 Liq.
43
Ended
W
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?

Bank / Asset 10+ times

$134k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
J
January Inflation - Annual

≥2.9%

$264k Vol.
$0 Liq.
172
Ended
E
Election called by...?

Wednesday, Nov 6

$146k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
M
Major US official out by April 30?

No

$16k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
M
Major US official out by May 31?

Yes

$40k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
C
Croatia Presidential Election

Zoran Milanović

$5.1m Vol.
$0 Liq.
139
Ended